Global trade stagnating, says EBRD

Vice-Chancellor of The University of Nottingham Professor Sir David Greenaway (left) with Chief Economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Sergei Guriev (right) and Chief Executive of Asia House Michael Lawrence (right). The discussion on globalisation took place as part of The University of Nottingham's Global Dialogue series. Photo by Martyn Hicks

Vice-Chancellor of The University of Nottingham Professor Sir David Greenaway (left) with Chief Economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Sergei Guriev (right) and Chief Executive of Asia House Michael Lawrence (right). The discussion on globalisation took place as part of The University of Nottingham's Global Dialogue series. Photo by Martyn Hicks

Global trade stagnating, says EBRD

15/03/17

By Paul Nicholson

Global trade as a percentage of GDP is stagnating globally, according to Chief Economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) Sergei Guriev. Speaking at Asia House as part of The University of Nottingham’s Global Dialogues series, Guriev warned of ‘catastrophic consequences’ of a trade war between China and the US and the negative impacts of protectionist policies.

World Bank data on GDP to trade ratios also points to an erratic trend whereby a huge drop in global trade during the financial crisis has seen an anaemic recovery since 2010.

Speaking alongside Vice-Chancellor of The University of Nottingham Professor Sir David Greenaway, Guriev gave a stark warning regarding a looming crisis around national debt overhang in both developed countries and Asian markets, including China.

Sir David signalled that whilst Asian economies faced challenges especially in the development of human capital through basic education programmes, that future of global growth in trade will be driven by Asia.

paul.nicholson@asiahouse.co.uk

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