Victory likely for Jokowi in Indonesian presidential vote

Quick counts from the Indonesian election indicate incumbent President Jokowi and running mate Ma’ruf Amin are set for a comfortable win. Results from five quick count polls give Jokowi between 54.4 per cent and 55.7 per cent, and Prabowo between 43.9 per cent and 45.6 per cent, with around 50 per cent of the votes counted. Quick count polls have proven to be indicative of the result in past elections.

These results would give Jokowi a bigger winning margin against Prabowo than in 2014, when he won with 53.15 per cent of votes against Prabowo’s 46.85 per cent. This would give Jokowi a relatively strong position to implement his policy agenda, continuing with economic reforms, pursuing international funding for infrastructure and creating thousands of new jobs. However, he will also be constrained by his coalition, which in the past has hampered his ability to implement promised reform on social welfare, corruption and human rights issues.

The make-up of the houses of parliament will also be determined by today’s vote. The results of this will contribute to the make-up of Jokowi’s political alliances and will affect the passage of new laws and implementation of reform policies.

Prabowo has repeated his claims of potential voter fraud, so may contest the results after the official announcement. Nevertheless, the news of Jokowi’s likely win and therefore policy continuity will bode well for the rupiah. Markets already reacted positively to the quick counts, as one-month non-deliverable forwards for dollar-rupiah falling up to 0.8 per cent, the biggest drop in a month. Official results for the Presidential race and parliamentary seats are expected to be released in May.

Read Asia House Advisory’s briefing note on the Indonesian Presidential Elections 2019