Disruptive financial dynamics could increasingly unsettle Asia’s resilience given the breadth and persistence of US dollar strength, according to the latest research briefing from Asia House.
Economic risks for 2023 have grown more acute, both in advanced and emerging economies. Asia is no exception. Vulnerability to shocks and their persistence and breadth will remain heightened in 2023 and will be catalytic in reducing global growth. Approximately one third of the global economy is likely to be in contraction in 2023 (IMF, 2022), fuelling the likelihood of a sub-two per cent global growth rate.
Chief among the global triggers will be financial developments in the US. The increase in US interest rates – coupled with US dollar strength – will bring about multifaceted changes in Asia’s economies. Those with high US dollar debt burden, high usage of the US dollar as a trade invoicing currency, and those that have high imports as a share of their economy, will shoulder more pronounced economic impacts in 2023.
In a new research briefing, Phyllis Papadavid, Director of Research and Advisory at Asia House, assesses the implications of these US dollar dynamics for Asian economies.
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