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    New research briefing: What to look for at China’s 20th Party Congress

    Published On: 26 September 2022

    Shaped by personnel changes, economic challenges, and factional dynamics, the upcoming National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party will have profound implications for China and the global economy. In a new research briefing, Zhouchen Mao, Head of Research and Advisory at Asia House, shares his analysis ahead of October’s key summit.

    Key messages

    • The 20th Party Congress will be closely watched not only because of major personnel changes, but also for future policy direction on the economy, society and international relations.
    • The decisions made at the October Party Congress are not only relevant for China, but will also shape the global economy.
    • The Party Congress work report is likely to convey a message of continuity in implementing President Xi Jinping’s key domestic priorities as the country moves towards achieving the second centenary goal of building a “modern socialist country”. These priorities are broadly classified as strengthening self-reliance and sufficiency, addressing wealth disparity and ensuring financial stability.
    • Major personnel reshuffling at the Party Congress will be influenced by factional affiliation, age and the extent to which President Xi can personally decide the appointment process.
    • The foreign policy direction of developing China into a global leader is highly unlikely to change. The Party will increase its effort to maintain a stable external environment that is conducive to the domestic development by continuing to pursue a more active leading role in both global and regional affairs, which will include deepening South-South relations and expanding its footprint in Southeast Asia. It will also continue to strengthen its ability to defend its national interests and regime security.
    • To balance between investor confidence and pandemic prevention, China will continue to “tweak and refine” dynamic Zero-COVID policy. But a notable shift away from the strategy is unlikely in the short-term.