Indonesian Elections 2019: Has President Jokowi delivered on his vision?

Noura Tan, Business & Policy Intern

On 17 April, Indonesians will go to the polls to elect their next president and national legislature. This will be Indonesia’s fourth direct presidential election and its fifth parliamentary election since the country’s transition to democracy in 1999. At the forefront is the contest between incumbent President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and returning challenger, Prabowo Subianto. Jokowi presently leads with 54.9 per cent support, versus Subianto’s 32.1 per cent, according to the Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting survey released earlier this March.

In the 2014 election, the candidates advanced two divergent visions for Indonesia’s future. While Prabowo flexed a confrontational nationalism focused on protecting local markets from the threat of globalisation, Jokowi’s victory campaign championed an inclusive, technocratic government geared towards accelerating large-scale infrastructural development and boosting the economic growth rate from 5 per cent in 2014 to 8 per cent in 2019.

The upcoming Indonesian elections beckons the question – has Jokowi delivered on his vision?

His government’s focus on infrastructure has led up to more than USD$300 billion of projects to better connect almost 17,000 islands, while generating 10.3 million new jobs between 2015 and 2018. Steady growth was driven by an increase in household spending at 5.1 per cent, government spending at 5.3 per cent, as well as fixed capital formation growth at 5.9 per cent, according to Bloomberg. Meanwhile, Southeast Asia is enjoying an investment boom that saw Indonesia peak at 6.5 per cent investment growth in 2018. Overall, Indonesia continues to hold the title of ASEAN’s largest economy with a consecutive growth streak of around 5 per cent.

However, as Jokowi begins his 2019 re-election bid, his agenda to transform Indonesia’s economic future remains unfinished. His infrastructural development programme and economic reform agenda has managed to stabilise Indonesia’s trajectory but not boost it substantively.

Despite claiming a steady economic growth rate, the numbers fall short from the 8 per cent initially promised in his 2014 agenda, public debt has surged 40 per cent and its trade balance is facing a US$1.16 billion deficit, as reported in January.

Of 247 national strategic projects, only 26 have been completed with another seven to be completed by 2019, according to the Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery Report for January-June 2017. Jokowi has also been criticised on the high cost of the ambitious infrastructure agenda and increasing dependence on foreign investment, particularly from China.

The current election has seen both Jokowi and Prabowo outline pro-economic agendas with pledges to create more jobs, stable prices and bolster economic growth. Leading up to the elections, Jokowi has increased government and social spending in his last budget and expressed commitment to transforming Indonesia from a commodity-reliant economy into a manufacturing power. Prabowo on the other hand has promised to slash company and individual tax rates to reinvigorate the Indonesian economy, cut imports of agricultural products to shield Indonesian farmers, revamp the fuel subsidy program, as well as raise wages of civil servants and police officers.

Overall, the country remains one of the emerging markets most vulnerable to a regional trade war and other external shocks. A lacklustre win for Jokowi would dampen the momentum in reinvigorating the economy and contentious foreign policy that has balanced towards China, while a turnaround victory for Prabowo could endear him to the White House owing to his heavy criticism of Chinese presence in Indonesia. Nevertheless, the ex-military general’s links with Islamist groups and human rights abuses as well as reputation for unpredictability continues to blight his appeal.

On 27 March, Asia House welcomes Jacqueline Hicks, Marie Sklodowska-Curie Fellow, Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham and Shotaro Tani, Staff Writer, Nikkei Asian Review to our event looking at the implications of the upcoming elections, as well as Indonesia’s place amid current global trade tensions. Find out more and register your interest in attending