Press Release: Asia House Annual Outlook 2025

London, Thursday 16 January 2025 – Asia’s economies are set to be the global growth engine in the coming year, despite multiple risks, particularly geopolitical tensions.

The latest Annual Outlook from Asia House, the London-based think tank, reveals that India, Vietnam and the Philippines are forecast to achieve growth rates of more than six per cent in 2025, while Indonesia and Malaysia are expected to grow by more than five per cent respectively.

The return of Donald Trump to the White House poses the greatest challenge to Asia, with his threats of widespread tariffs and the potential for heightened tensions with China.

The report provides growth forecasts for eight major economies in Asia and examines the drivers behind them, including digital acceleration, higher consumer spending and the green agenda.  Drawing on insights from around 100 business leaders, the Annual Outlook also delivers a comprehensive analysis of the opportunities and risks shaping Asia in 2025.

Key findings of the report include:

• Asia will continue to outperform the rest of the world in 2025; India, Vietnam, and the Philippines will be the region’s standout performers, with growth rates exceeding 6 per cent.
• Geopolitics poses the greatest risk and central to that is the return of Donald Trump to the White House. His threats of widespread tariffs would, if implemented, be a major disruptor.
• China’s economic growth is projected to slow to around 4 per cent, with the extent of the slowdown dependent on the effectiveness of stimulus measures. However, its leadership in renewable energy and digital innovation remains a key strength.
• Southeast Asia’s rapid adoption of digital technologies is expected to boost productivity, foster financial inclusion and open new markets.
• The US-China technological rivalry is creating opportunities for non-aligned nations like Malaysia and Singapore, which are emerging as semiconductor hubs.
• India and Vietnam are making significant strides in implementing compliance-based carbon markets, further driving the region’s green transition.

Michael Lawrence OBE, Chief Executive of Asia House, said:

“Asia continues to demonstrate its resilience in the face of global turbulence. This report provides critical insights for businesses and policymakers to navigate risks while capitalising on the opportunities the region has to offer.”

About the report

The Annual Outlook 2025 includes detailed forecasts for major Asian economies, analyses of regional trends, and a deep dive into Asia’s evolving trade landscape. The report draws on proprietary data, including insights gathered from a survey of more than 50 businesses and expert contributions from around 40 specialists who participated in three international roundtables hosted by Asia House. Figures and projections are based on Asia House research and expert analysis.

Accessing the report

The Annual Outlook 2025, which is embargoed until 9am on Thursday, 16 January 2025, is available for download here.

Notes to editors

For media enquiries, please contact: Juliette Pitt, Communications Manager at Juliette.pitt@asiahouse.co.uk or on her mobile number 07498543733.