Driving commercial and political engagement between Asia, the Middle East and Europe
Driving commercial and political engagement between Asia, the Middle East and Europe
Driving commercial and political engagement between Asia, the Middle East and Europe
Gulf-China Trade to Surpass Gulf-West Trade by 2027 – Asia House Report
London, 5th December 2024: Trade between the Gulf states and China is on track to surpass Gulf trade with Western economies[1] by 2027, according to The Middle East Pivot to Asia 2024 Report from Asia House. This significant milestone in the Gulf’s evolving economic story – projected to occur midway through the second term of US President Donald Trump – underscores the rapid strengthening of Gulf-Asia ties as global trade priorities shift.
The Middle East Pivot to Asia 2024 Report examines how Gulf-Emerging Asia[2] trade will continue to power ahead in 2025. That’s despite a 12 per cent drop in the value of trade in 2023, due primarily to sharply lower oil prices.
Asia House projects Gulf-China trade will grow from $225 billion in 2023 to $325 billion by 2027, surpassing the Gulf’s trade with Western economies. This historic shift will likely occur midway through Donald Trump’s second presidential term, reflecting the increasing importance of Asian markets to Gulf economies.
The report highlights that while Gulf countries have historically balanced relationships between East and West, Asia is fast emerging as a critical economic partner. The report attributes this shift to several factors, including:
Michael Lawrence, Chief Executive of Asia House, said:
“Asia House has been tracking the Middle East Pivot to Asia since 2017 and it clear from our research that we are in the midst of a profound shift in the global landscape. These new alliances – diplomatic, economic and commercial – are being forged as Western economies become increasingly protectionist. Asia House expects the Middle East pivot to Asia to accelerate over the next decade which will be reflected in higher trade volumes and new commercial partnerships.”
Freddie Neve, Senior Middle East Associate at Asia House and lead author of the report, said:
“This is not just a short-term adjustment but a long-term realignment that positions Asia at the heart of the Gulf’s economic strategy. This trend presents transformative opportunities for global businesses and investors.”
Despite challenges such as oil price volatility, US-China tensions, and regional conflict, Asia House forecasts that Gulf-Emerging Asia trade could grow from US$451 billion in 2023 to US$682 billion by 2030.
The report also notes that the return of Donald Trump to the White House could accelerate Gulf-China ties. Proposed tariffs on Chinese imports may encourage Beijing to deepen its commercial relationships in the Gulf, while US-China tensions could push Gulf nations to strengthen ties with Asia further.
The Middle East Pivot to Asia 2024 Report is now available for download at asiahouse.org.
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For further comment or interview opportunities, please contact Juliette Pitt, Communications Manager, Asia House, on Juliette.pitt@asiahouse.co.uk
[1] The US, UK, and Euro Area.
[2] ‘Emerging Asia’ refers to the IMF’s ‘Emerging and Developing Asia’ list of 34 Asian economies, which includes China, India, and most ASEAN members but excludes advanced Asian economies such as Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, Australia, and New Zealand.
The Middle East Pivot to Asia 2024 report presents Asia House’s latest research on trade and investment trends between the Gulf and Asia.
Produced by the Asia House Research and Advisory team, the report aims to help business leaders and policymakers better understand this pivotal shift in global trade, which will have far-reaching economic and geopolitical implications.
For more information about Asia House’s Middle East expertise and research services, and to enquire about bespoke presentations on the issues covered in the report, please contact Charlie Humphreys, Director of Corporate Affairs: charlie.humphreys@asiahouse.co.uk
